The Met Workplace has issued a Crimson Climate Warning on account of storm Eunice, which is hitting the south of England and Wales and bringing extraordinarily robust winds, rainfall and flooding.
Uncovered coastal areas are to see the worst gusts from the excessive climate occasion, with a wind pace of 196kph (122mph) recorded on the Isle of Wight this morning, Friday 18 February 2022.
Eunice’s influence on the ocean degree may trigger storm surges, and extreme flood warnings have been issued for components of the nation together with the Severn Estuary and River Wye in Gloucestershire. In Devon and Cornwall, energy cuts have affected greater than 50,000 houses, and the BBC studies that Eire has 73,000 houses and companies with out energy.
BBC Climate stated Eunice “may nicely be one of many worst storms in three many years”.
The storm follows simply two days behind one other, storm Dudley, which battered Scotland and Northern Eire on 16 February.
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An energetic jet steam will assist to develop after which propel #TwoStorms throughout the UK this week #StormDudley and #StormEunice will carry disruptive winds from Wednesday afternoon and presumably snow on Friday ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/0b8wqZek9c
— Met Workplace (@metoffice) February 14, 2022
“After the impacts from storm Dudley for a lot of on Wednesday, storm Eunice will carry damaging gusts in what may very well be probably the most impactful storms to have an effect on southern and central components of the UK for a number of years,” stated the chief meteorologist on the Met Workplace, Paul Gundersen.
“The pink warning areas point out a major hazard to life as extraordinarily robust winds present the potential for harm to constructions and flying particles.”
Some scientists have recommended that the influence of storm Eunice – and future storms – has been exacerbated by the local weather disaster. However how precisely does rising temperatures have an effect on the UK climate?
Has local weather change prompted Storm Eunice?
“Very often the query posed is whether or not an occasion is due to local weather change or not. However it’s simply not a sure or no query,” stated Dr Friederike Otto, a lecturer on the Grantham Institute for Local weather Change, Imperial Faculty London.
“Local weather change could be one of many causes, and it could actually make occasions worse. However it's by no means the one trigger.”
Within the case of storm Eunice, the high-speed winds are unlikely to have been attributable to local weather change. However, in keeping with Otto, the harm executed to the UK shores could have been made worse by the rising temperatures.
“What we do know is that the rainfall and storm surge points of those storms is worse due to local weather change.”
Local weather change may additionally push storms additional up the globe, stated Professor Dann Mitchell, a local weather scientist on the College of Bristol.
“We do know that the positioning of those storms may change, and that’s due to local weather change’s influence on the jet stream.”
The jet stream is an air present that circles the Northern Hemisphere, distributing wind and rain, storms and heatwaves. It’s thought that rising air temperatures will alter the circulate of the air, inflicting the jet stream to maneuver additional north.
“The jet stream controls the storm tracks, the way in which the storms journey over the North Atlantic and hit us [in the UK]. So, as local weather change is inflicting a poleward shift within the jet stream, you’d count on a poleward shift within the storm tracks as nicely,” stated Mitchell.
“We’re additionally anticipating to see a deeper penetration of those storm tracks in Europe. So, whereas it’s true to say that the wind itself will not be detectably completely different [due to climate change] but, in a way storm winds will enhance someplace, as a result of they’re affecting locations that they usually wouldn’t.”
How does local weather change trigger flooding?
Otto stated elevated rain is due to what's referred to as the thermodynamic impact. “A hotter ambiance can maintain extra water vapour and that water vapour must get out of the ambiance, which it does as rainfall.”
Presently, one diploma of worldwide warming leads to a seven per cent enhance of rainfall in these occasions. “It doesn’t sound like a lot, nevertheless it’s quite a bit,” stated Otto.
As well as, storm surges that carry water excessive above regular sea degree are actually much more harmful. “Storm surges that normally happen with these occasions are extra damaging, as a result of sea ranges are increased than they'd have been with out local weather change,” stated Otto.
“So long as temperate world temperatures are rising – and they won't cease rising till we now have reached web zero CO2 emissions – these occasions [will get] extra frequent and extra intense. With the present trajectory of greenhouse gasoline emissions, we are going to see extra flooding, extra intense rainfall and lots of extra sizzling and lengthy heatwaves.”
What could be executed to guard the UK from the impacts of local weather change?
“We've got a number of an company in decreasing our vulnerability [to these events],” stated Otto. “Redesigning our cities in order that there are extra inexperienced areas implies that water can go someplace. It doesn’t essentially must flood the homes.”
These actions may also assist us as heatwaves change into extra frequent. “Numerous the issues it's essential to do to be higher protected against flooding are the identical issues that it's essential to be higher protected against heatwaves.
“Inexperienced areas are so necessary. On the one hand, water can go someplace and it doesn’t flood homes, but in addition when you may have extra inexperienced areas the temperatures within the cities don’t get so excessive.”
In addition to being harmful to well being, heatwaves could cause fires, as seen in February 2019 when temperatures broke data and prompted outbreaks of fireside in East Sussex, West Yorkshire and Edinburgh.
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For Mitchell, the query is whether or not the local weather is altering sooner than we're adapting.
“In the meanwhile, the reply is sort of positively sure. We do have extra issues in place, like attempting to keep away from constructing on floodplains, as a result of we all know they’re going to change into worse within the winter. However by way of the nationwide infrastructure, we have to do higher.”
Earlier UK storms have broken coastal infrastructure and affected rail networks, and these items are nonetheless a priority sooner or later, stated Mitchell.
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